Global yields fell with rising Covid cases globally

Global yields fell with rising Covid cases globally. Flash manufacturing PMI also eased (except US) in major economies such as Japan, UK and Eurozone. Services PMI strengthened in Eurozone. ECB in its recent policy hinted at “persistent accommodation” changing the inflation targeting framework to “symmetric” from close or below 2% target. On the domestic front, India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps. Indian equity markets fell due to FII outflow. Our weekly tracker moderated to 93 (Feb’20=100) from 94 in the previous week with some moderation in mobility indicators.

Bonds: Global yields closed lower as Covid-19 cases rose globally. Germany’s 10Y yield fell the most by 7bps (-0.42%) as ECB signaled to be “persistently accommodative”. US 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps (1.28%) eyeing Fed meeting. Crude prices rose by 0.7% (US$ 74/bbl). India’s 10Y yield (5.85 GS2030) rose by 2bps (6.23%) due to Rs 111bn devolvement on PDs. System liquidity surplus was at Rs 5.5tn as on 23 Jul 2021 (Rs 5.6tn, last week).

Currency: Except CNY (flat) and INR (higher), global currencies closed lower this week. DXY rose by 0.2% with flash manufacturing PMI rising more than expected. Investors also await Fed meeting. AUD depreciated by 0.5% as half of Australia’s population is now under lockdown. INR appreciated by 0.2% despite higher oil prices and FII outflows (US$ 307mn).

Equity: Barring Nikkei and Sensex, other global indices ended higher this week supported by dovish comments from ECB and better flash services PMI print in Eurozone. Dow (1.1%) surged the most. Sensex (0.3%) ended in red led by losses in auto and banking stocks.

Covid-19 tracker: Global Covid-19 cases rose by 3.2mn this week, with big jump seen in last two days (0.6mn addition). Fresh cases increased in US (0.4mn versus 0.2mn), Japan (23K versus 19K). In India, cases rose at a slower pace of 0.2mn versus 0.3mn. Our weekly economic activity tracker index moderated to 93 (100=Feb’20) from 94. UAE has fully vaccinated 68% of its population, UK is at 54% and US at 49%. India is at 6.7%.

Upcoming key events: Major events this week include rate decision of US Fed, Q2CY21 GDP prints of US and Eurozone and China’s industrial profit data. Germany’s IFO index and US new home sales are also due. On the domestic front, eight core index and fiscal data will drive markets.