Global yields fell led by US and Germany as global growth worries resurfaced

Global yields fell led by US and Germany as global growth worries resurfaced. Fed Chair remained dovish and ECB also hinted at continuing with dovish policy. DXY closed 0.6% higher with supportive macro data. However, global equity markets reacted negatively to rising Covid-19 cases. Indian equity markets went up as cases continue to fall. India’s 10Y rose by 3bps on the back of RBI buying off-the run securities in its G-SAP auction. Our weekly economic tracker has inched up to 94 from 93 last week (Feb’20=100), signalling further revival in economic activity.

Bonds: Growth worries pulled global yields lower. US 10Y yield fell by 7bps (1.29%) supported by dovish comments from Fed Chair. Germany’s 10Y yield fell by 6bps (-0.35%) as ECB Board Member also spoke about monetary stimulus to support the economy. Crude prices fell by 2.6% (US$ 74/bbl). India’s 10Y yield (5.85 GS2030) rose by 3bps (6.21%) as RBI did not include on-the-run securities under current G-SAP auction. System liquidity surplus was steady at Rs 5.6tn as on 16 Jul 2021 unchanged from last week.

Currency: Global currencies closed mixed. DXY rose by 0.6% as US data remained positive (jobless claims, retail sales). AUD (1.2%) and GBP (1%) fell amidst rising Covid-19 cases and a slowing global economy. INR rose by 0.1% as oil prices eased. FII outflows were muted at US$ 84mn.

Equity: Global indices closed mixed, with US and European markets closing lower and Asian markets ending in green. FTSE fell (1.6%) the most led by higher inflation, BoE Deputy Governor’s comments on tightening of monetary policy and rising Covid-19 cases. Sensex rose the most by 1.4%, led by realty and cap good stocks.

Covid-19 tracker: Global Covid-19 cases rose by 3.5mn this week versus 3mn last week. Fresh cases increased in UK (0.3mn versus 0.2mn), US (0.2mn versus 0.1mn) and APAC (1.1mn versus 0.9mn). In India, cases rose at a slower pace of 0.27mn versus 0.29mn. Our weekly economic activity tracker index rose to 94 (100=Feb’20) from 93. Israel has fully vaccinated 60% of its population, UK is at 52% and US at 48%. India is at 5.6%.

Upcoming key events: Major events this week include rate decisions of ECB and BoI, global flash PMIs and US housing data (starts and existing home sales). RBA’s minutes are scheduled for release. On the domestic front, Covid-19 cases, rains and Monsoon session of Parliament will drive markets.